“We need another week or two to really tell if California’s fairly quick shelter in place did make a difference. It has the potential to make a huge difference. I know that mathematically … But I don’t know that with any degree of certainty.”

(Photo: KQED)

"Two months after its first confirmed case of the deadly respiratory illness in California, the state is preparing to confront what public health authorities agree will be the cruelest month — an April that portends a peak in sickness and death.

"How cruel remains to be seen. Officials hope that sharp limitations on work and public activity, imposed by Gov. Gavin Newsom on March 19, and subsequently ratcheted up in some cities and counties, will hobble the COVID-19‘s racehorse spread."

"The enormous social reengineering of recent days has closed businesses and emptied public places. But its ultimate effectiveness remains one of multiple unknowns — dependent on innumerable actions by millions of Californians."

"While the U.S. now stands to have the worst outbreak of any developed country in the world, UC Berkeley biostatistics professor Nicholas Jewell said California will soon learn whether its limits on work and public movement have paid dividends."

"Because of a lag time of as much as two weeks between transmission of the illness and the onset of symptoms, gauging the benefits of physical distancing takes time. With California’s stay-at-home order eight days old on Friday, people reporting the illness might have been infected prior to the limitations."

“We need another week or two to really tell if California’s fairly quick shelter in place did make a difference,” Jewell said. “It has the potential to make a huge difference. I know that mathematically … But I don’t know that with any degree of certainty.”

"Another unknown is how California’s homeless population will affect the crisis."



"California has more than 150,000 people living in unstable housing conditions, with 108,000 living outdoors. The tens of thousands of people living on the street represent a risk to hospitals because they are especially susceptible to severe cases of the novel coronavirus — they are aging, often have underlying health conditions and live in environments where sanitation is difficult."

"Boston researcher Thomas Byrne compares the homeless population to those in nursing homes, and points out that those living on the street often have the medical conditions similar to housed people 20 years older."

"Byrne released a study this week that predicts up to 2,600 homeless people in Los Angeles alone could wind up in hospitals with the coronavirus, and about 900 could need intensive care, tying up crucial resources."

"Gov. Gavin Newsom last week set in motion an ambitious plan to move tens of thousands of homeless people into hotels and motels. But so far, only a few thousand unsheltered people across the state have been relocated to shelters and a few hundred of the first available rooms — though Newsom said more than 4,000 have been leased or purchased."

"Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, a UCLA epidemiologist urged Californians to remain hopeful, saying: “There is life after COVID-19. It is not an existential threat to all of mankind. We will overcome this.”

Read the full article at:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-28/how-bad-will-the-next-few-weeks-for-california-as-coronavirus-cases-explode